Muthoot Finance more than doubled its FY26 gold loan AUM growth guidance, citing favorable RBI regulatory changes, higher gold prices, and unsecured-credit tightening pushing borrowers toward gold loans; standalone AUM is already up 47% YoY. Asset quality improved alongside the growth (gross Stage-3 loans fell to 2.25% from 2.58%), which is real evidence against the pending BUY-to-HOLD confirmation on MUTHOOTFIN, not just a growth story. The same RBI/gold-price tailwind plausibly extends to other gold-loan NBFCs, though none of those tickers appear in today's evidence.
GIFT Nifty closed near 23,237 (+0.21%) ahead of Monday's session, a modestly positive overnight cue, but it followed a Sept 25 Wall Street session where the Nasdaq fell 1.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Dow fell 0.7% on tech-sector selling -- a negative read specifically for Nifty IT given its close correlation to Nasdaq moves. IT's stance only flips WATCH-to-ACCUMULATE on a positive catalyst, so this doesn't move the published stance, but it argues against an upgrade. Asian cues are mixed: Nikkei extended gains to a fifth straight session (+1.3%) on AI-stock and dividend-record-date buying, Kospi is up ~2.7% on the week on AI/semiconductor interest, while Taiwan's TAIEX fell on Sept 24. Headwinds into the week: Brent crude near $104-105/bbl on Strait of Hormuz tension (still up on the week), elevated US Treasury yields, and a softening rupee near 96/USD. RBI's next MPC meeting (Oct 5-7) follows August CPI at 4.82% -- above the 4% target -- which raises the bar for any dovish shift.
A change to anything but AVOID publishes only after two consecutive sessions say the same thing; AVOID publishes at once.
| Ticker | Close | Published | Pending | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANTELOPUS | ₹1,261.70 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| APOLLOTYRE | ₹400.10 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| ARTEMISMED | ₹357.70 | BUY | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| AXISBANK | ₹1,222.40 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| BANCOINDIA | ₹599.85 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| CCAVENUE | ₹15.89 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| DEEPINDS | ₹781.10 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| ENDURANCE | ₹2,645.90 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| FIEMIND | ₹1,965.50 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| GALLANTT | ₹545.10 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| GULFOILLUB | ₹1,106.60 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| HEROMOTOCO | ₹5,360.00 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| INDOTECH | ₹3,177.70 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| JLHL | ₹265.65 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| KDDL | ₹4,033.40 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| KISSHT | ₹348.40 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| LGBBROSLTD | ₹1,735.30 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| LUMAXIND | ₹5,769.00 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| MUTHOOTFIN | ₹2,835.00 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| NELCAST | ₹118.39 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| NRBBEARING | ₹534.80 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| PRICOLLTD | ₹759.40 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| RECLTD | ₹312.95 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| SHARDAMOTR | ₹956.35 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SHRIPISTON | ₹4,746.80 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| SKFINDIA | ₹1,539.80 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SSWL | ₹378.75 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SUNDARMFIN | ₹4,508.00 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| TENNIND | ₹515.25 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| TMCV | ₹441.50 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| WHEELS | ₹2,296.40 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
No tracked name reports today.
Source: NSE event calendar, filtered to the 1431 tracked names.
| Index | Close | Points | Change | P/E | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,140.50 | ▲ +77.40 | ▲ +0.34% | 19.56 | 2.80 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 71,778.65 | ▲ +397.20 | ▲ +0.56% | 18.97 | 3.19 |
| Nifty 500 | 22,603.50 | ▲ +50.90 | ▲ +0.23% | 21.90 | 3.13 |
| Nifty Bank | 55,580.40 | ▲ +141.90 | ▲ +0.26% | 13.15 | 1.66 |
| NIFTY Midcap 100 | 60,906.00 | ▼ -84.15 | ▼ -0.14% | 29.35 | 4.13 |
Source: NSE ind_close_all_20260925
(levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).
Index P/E from NSE's official daily index file.
The desk's track record — the FIRST call made on each standing name, against its call today. Entry price is the close on the day of that first call, read from the cached bhavcopy for that date. "Unchanged" means the original call still stands.
| Company | First flagged | Verdict then | Verdict now | At flag | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL Networks LtdSTLNETWORK | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹25.68 | ₹54.61 | ▲ +112.7% |
| Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri LtdTBZ | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹251.05 | ₹520.00 | ▲ +107.1% |
| Raymond LtdRAYMOND | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹625.00 | ₹1,196.65 | ▲ +91.5% |
| Waterways Leisure Tourism LimitedCORDELIA | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹830.00 | ₹105.21 | ▼ -87.3% |
| TCC Concept LtdTCC | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹253.05 | ₹50.75 | ▼ -79.9% |
| Indo Rama Synthetics (India) LtdINDORAMA | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | HOLD | ₹56.81 | ₹99.36 | ▲ +74.9% |
| India Glycols LtdINDIAGLYCO | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹1,139.20 | ₹309.90 | ▼ -72.8% |
| Shanthi Gears LtdSHANTIGEAR | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹388.95 | ₹666.55 | ▲ +71.4% |
| Kabra Extrusion Technik LtdKABRAEXTRU | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹512.60 | ₹846.40 | ▲ +65.1% |
| Technocraft Ventures LtdTECHNOCRAF | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹304.79 | ₹491.05 | ▲ +61.1% |
| Quadrant Future Tek LtdQUADFUTURE | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹341.00 | ₹547.50 | ▲ +60.6% |
| Goodluck India LtdGOODLUCK | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹1,330.00 | ₹525.65 | ▼ -60.5% |
1419 more standing calls with history are not shown — this table is the 12 that have moved most since we flagged them.
Source: data/state.json (call memory) × data/prices/<date>.json.
Management raised FY26 gold loan AUM growth guidance from 15% to 30-35%, citing RBI regulatory tailwinds, higher gold prices and unsecured-credit tightening. Standalone AUM is up 47% YoY, and asset quality improved: gross Stage-3 loans fell to 2.25% (from 2.58% the prior quarter, 4.3% a year ago) and Stage-II assets more than halved.
Indo Tech booked a Rs 165.55cr order from AP TRANSCO for 26 power transformers, a Rs 54cr letter of award from Waaree Renewable Technologies, and a Rs 42.88cr order from Leap Green Energy, plus an entry into the high-voltage transformer segment. Its Sept 23 AGM passed routine dividend/RPT/borrowing/ESOP items with no red flags -- order momentum that supports the pending QUALITY-WAIT-to-HOLD call flip, though it does not move the CAPITAL_GOODS sector stance itself.
REC's H1 profit rose 19% YoY to a record Rs 8,877cr; the loan book grew 7% to Rs 5.82 lakh crore despite Rs 49,000cr of prepayments from the Kaleshwaram project. Management held its 11-12% FY26 growth guidance and its Rs 10 lakh crore-by-2030 target, while net credit-impaired assets fell to 0.24% -- evidence against the pending BUY-to-HOLD confirmation, though it reaffirms rather than raises what was already known.
CONCOR reported 9% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY27 against full-year guidance of 9.5%, attributed to weak Exim volumes. The company has scheduled investor meetings on Sept 22, 23 and 29 expected to address the gap. It's a modest, single-sourced, early-year data point rather than a guidance cut, but it is the first sign of softening under a call that has assumed a stronger trajectory.
The Government of India approved award of two Discovered Small Field Bid Round-IV contract areas (KG onland, Cambay onland) to Antelopus Selan Energy in early September, a positive growth data point behind the stock's 11.56% move this session. AGM is scheduled for Sept 30.
Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 15% technicals, renormalised over those three — the 20% news catalyst is not counted because no research was written for this session. It is not treated as neutral; it is absent. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.
| Sector | Stance | Entry | Cheap | Quality | Tech | News | Index | Idx P/E | B/W/H/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology 75 scanned · 17 researched | WATCH | 60.2 | 60.1 | 78.5 | 30.0 | — | ▼ -0.17% | 18.0 | 4/9/54/8 |
| Banks 40 scanned · 13 researched | WATCH | 45.7 | 35.3 | 52.3 | 62.1 | — | ▲ +0.26% | 13.2 | 1/0/29/10 |
| Pharmaceuticals 85 scanned · 20 researched | AVOID | 42.9 | 15.5 | 72.0 | 67.2 | — | ▼ -0.10% | 41.8 | 0/20/54/11 |
| Automobiles 110 scanned · 37 researched | WATCH | 50.8 | 28.7 | 78.4 | 63.8 | — | ▲ +0.89% | 31.3 | 1/21/77/11 |
| FMCG 105 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 55.8 | 50.0 | 68.8 | 49.4 | — | ▲ +0.40% | 31.9 | 4/19/65/17 |
| Metals & Mining 83 scanned · 18 researched | WATCH | 49.2 | 33.0 | 67.9 | 61.4 | — | ▲ +0.35% | 15.9 | 0/11/53/19 |
| Realty 39 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 51.7 | 50.4 | 52.0 | 54.6 | — | ▲ +0.92% | 36.9 | 1/2/15/21 |
| Energy & Power 83 scanned · 18 researched | WATCH | 56.3 | 50.0 | 63.4 | 61.4 | — | ▲ +0.21% | 14.5 | 5/7/39/32 |
| Financial Services 148 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 11 researched | WATCH | 55.1 | 63.1 | 43.6 | 53.0 | — | ▲ +0.56% | 15.4 | 4/4/87/53 |
| Healthcare & Hospitals 58 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 7 researched | WATCH | 48.3 | 26.1 | 73.8 | 64.9 | — | ▼ -0.47% | 43.7 | 4/16/33/5 |
| Hospitality & Tourism 37 scanned · 8 researched | ACCUMULATE | 64.2 | 63.5 | 68.6 | 58.8 | — | ▲ +0.11% | 87.8 | 0/6/21/10 |
| Chemicals 98 scanned · 8 researched | WATCH | 58.0 | 52.2 | 68.5 | 55.9 | — | — | — | 2/12/61/23 |
| Construction & Materials 125 scanned · 10 researched | WATCH | 61.9 | 70.5 | 60.8 | 41.0 | — | — | — | 3/11/69/42 |
| Capital Goods 101 scanned · 15 researched | WATCH | 51.9 | 30.8 | 78.5 | 64.0 | — | — | — | 10/12/65/14 |
| Textiles & Apparel 47 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 56.0 | 50.0 | 62.6 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 2/6/27/12 |
| Retail & Consumer 67 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 59.4 | 56.1 | 68.4 | 53.4 | — | — | — | 2/10/36/19 |
| Packaging & Plastics 34 scanned · 2 researched | WATCH | 52.5 | 37.8 | 64.7 | 71.5 | — | — | — | 2/4/20/8 |
| Logistics & Transport 25 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 45.6 | 29.0 | 67.6 | 53.4 | — | — | — | 6/3/9/7 |
| Telecom & Media 29 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 52.5 | 50.0 | 60.2 | 46.4 | — | — | — | 3/1/14/11 |
| Commercial Services 31 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 60.2 | 64.0 | 52.8 | 62.4 | — | — | — | 2/2/14/13 |
| Diversified & Other 32 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 47.4 | 33.2 | 59.7 | 64.7 | — | — | — | 0/3/18/11 |
Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.
Split evenly across large/mid/small/micro cap so this list isn't one tier's picks — new calls first, then the highest long-term composites within each. Micro-cap names are boxed and flagged Highly Volatile — worth watching, not a call to buy — since their price swings run about twice every other tier's. Each card shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.
| Metric | Why it is in the framework | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Return on capital, level and trend | Durable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Gross profitability (GP/assets) | As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Piotroski F-score | A nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps | Piotroski 2000 JAR |
| Cash-flow-to-net-profit | Accrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists | Sloan 1996 TAR |
| P/E versus the stock's own history | Cheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole | Basu 1977 JF |
| Book-to-market | The value premium, in its original form | Fama–French 1992 JF |
| EV/EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one | Practitioner standard |
| Altman Z and interest coverage | Distressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them | Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF |
| 52-week-high proximity, 200-DMA | Nearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone | George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE |
| Promoter pledge | Pledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale | Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied |
Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.