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The Long Desk

The Close · The Open · The Long Desk · Archive · Research
Tue, 25 Aug 2026
2000 companies · 2294 sector slots · 12 sectors · long-term lens

Trend Spotlight

Powell signals a September Fed rate cut in his final Jackson Hole address, with succession already under scrutiny.

At his last Jackson Hole appearance as chair, Powell said policy remains restrictive and 'the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,' pointing to a cooling jobs market and slowing growth even as inflation nears target. Futures now price roughly an 89% chance of a 25bp September cut, and equities have rallied through the week on the dovish read, with a Powell successor (Kevin Warsh drawing attention) still unconfirmed. A genuine turn toward easier US policy outlasts one session -- it lowers the global cost of capital and typically supports risk appetite toward EM equities, India included.

Day ahead

GIFT Nifty points to a mild positive open; Wall Street closed higher as crude fell on Iran-US diplomatic signals.

GIFT Nifty near 24,474 implies roughly a 35-point higher Nifty open. The S&P 500 (+0.32%), Dow (+0.30%) and Nasdaq (+0.6%) all closed higher Tuesday as falling oil eased bond-market pressure, extending the rally that followed Powell's dovish Jackson Hole remarks; Moderna's ~14% jump on a melanoma vaccine readout led healthcare. Brent and WTI both fell roughly 3% (Brent to ~$89.5/bbl, WTI to ~$82.5/bbl) on signs of possible Iran-US diplomatic progress easing supply-disruption fears -- a tailwind for oil-import-sensitive sectors if it holds.

Arrived overnight

Fii/dii cash flows published after The Close went out, and is included below. The evening report names what it is still waiting for, so nothing appears without having been declared missing first.

Reporting today

No tracked name reports today.

Coming up

Source: NSE event calendar, filtered to the 2000 tracked names.

Market Overview

IndexClosePoints ChangeP/EP/B
Nifty 50 24,334.55 ▲ +115.50 ▲ +0.48% 20.57 2.95
Nifty Next 50 74,508.90 ▲ +486.50 ▲ +0.66% 19.70 3.32
Nifty 500 23,611.60 ▲ +99.85 ▲ +0.42% 22.94 3.29
Nifty Bank 57,514.20 ▼ -11.75 ▼ -0.02% 13.61 1.72
NIFTY Midcap 100 64,162.90 ▲ +345.65 ▲ +0.54% 30.91 4.44
▲ 1173 advancing ■ 28 unchanged ▼ 1429 declining of 2630 equities, vs the 2026-08-24 close
Cash market, ₹ crore
FII / FPI net
▲ +1,593.53
bought 13,259 · sold 11,666
DII net
▲ +230.26
bought 14,280 · sold 14,050

Source: NSE ind_close_all_20260825 (levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).

Since We Flagged

The desk's track record — the FIRST call made on each standing name, against its call today. Entry price is the close on the day of that first call, read from the cached bhavcopy for that date. "Unchanged" means the original call still stands.

CompanyFirst flaggedVerdict then Verdict nowAt flagNow Move
Waterways Leisure Tourism LimitedCORDELIA Tue, 18 Aug 2026 HOLD unchanged ₹830.00 ₹104.45 ▼ -87.4%
Goodluck India LtdGOODLUCK Tue, 18 Aug 2026 BUY HOLD ₹1,330.00 ₹456.20 ▼ -65.7%
TD Power Systems LtdTDPOWERSYS Tue, 18 Aug 2026 HOLD unchanged ₹1,586.60 ₹729.40 ▼ -54.0%
Shanthi Gears LtdSHANTIGEAR Tue, 18 Aug 2026 HOLD unchanged ₹388.95 ₹557.90 ▲ +43.4%
Nandan Denim LtdNDL Tue, 18 Aug 2026 AVOID unchanged ₹2.27 ₹3.08 ▲ +35.7%
Welspun Corp LtdWELCORP Wed, 5 Aug 2026 BUY QUALITY-WAIT ₹1,788.10 ₹2,345.50 ▲ +31.2%
Kothari Sugars & Chemicals LtdKOTARISUG Tue, 18 Aug 2026 AVOID unchanged ₹26.89 ₹35.25 ▲ +31.1%
Virat Industries LtdVIRAT Tue, 18 Aug 2026 AVOID unchanged ₹343.00 ₹448.80 ▲ +30.8%
DJ Mediaprint & Logistics LtdDJML Tue, 18 Aug 2026 HOLD unchanged ₹105.46 ₹73.26 ▼ -30.5%
PVP Ventures LtdPVP Tue, 18 Aug 2026 AVOID unchanged ₹40.20 ₹51.35 ▲ +27.7%
Ebix LtdEBIX Tue, 18 Aug 2026 AVOID unchanged ₹17.06 ₹21.75 ▲ +27.5%
Swiss Military Consumer Goods LtdSWISSMLTRY Tue, 18 Aug 2026 HOLD unchanged ₹14.01 ₹17.53 ▲ +25.1%

Source: data/state.json (call memory) × data/prices/<date>.json.

Top Stories

RBI's NBFC revolving-credit ban nears its Aug 28 comment deadline, still unresolved Financial Services

RBI's draft would bar all but card-authorised NBFCs (SBI Card, BoB Cards) from offering revolving/flexi credit, restricting the rest to term loans -- confirmed by multiple outlets to match the draft as originally reported. The public comment window closes 28 August 2026 with no final notification yet, so whether the rule survives industry pushback in its current form remains the open question for Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv and Cholamandalam.

BAJFINANCE · BAJAJFINSV · CHOLAFIN

Lupin guides a deeper US sales step-down to $250-280M/quarter from Q2, with recovery still pointing to FY28 Pharmaceuticals

Management's own Q1 FY27 call detail shows Tolvaptan facing new Apotex/Teva competition (a possible fourth entrant in September) and a full-quarter Mirabegron hit from Q2 onward, guiding full-year US sales to $1.1-1.2bn versus $366M in Q1 alone. The stock fell 4% to a seven-week low on the news. Analysts still frame recovery as an FY28 event tied to new complex-generic and biosimilar launches -- consistent with, not a reversal of, the trough thesis already on the books.

LUPIN

PNB and Karur Vysya's Q1 FY27 prints extend the small/mid-bank recovery story, but Q2 is the real test Banks

PNB's standalone net profit roughly tripled YoY to ~Rs 5,253 crore with gross NPA improving to 2.78%, though margins stayed below the bank's own guidance; Karur Vysya posted 45% YoY profit growth with GNPA at a low 0.74%. Both corroborate the open sector-wide recovery-breadth claim, but the claim's real test -- whether the improvement holds into Q2 FY27 -- is still unreported.

PNB · KARURVYSYA

Infosys trims the top end of its FY27 growth guidance to 3%, the one large-cap that has now actually cut Information Technology

Infosys narrowed FY27 constant-currency revenue growth guidance to 1.5-3%, down from 1.5-3.5% in April, citing macro uncertainty and cautious client tech spending. It is the confirmed data point behind the open claim that this IT earnings season produced cuts or, at best, flat guidance across the large-caps -- not the broad reacceleration record bookings elsewhere in the sector might suggest.

INFY

BPCL pushes into UPI payments and advances its ~$2.8bn Brazil offshore project alongside a Rs 8,438-crore related-party vote Energy & Power

BPCL's Aug 27 AGM includes a resolution to let it enter electronic payment systems (UPI, Bharat QR), a real but non-core diversification, alongside up to Rs 5,000 crore of planned NCD issuance. Separately, partner Petrobras signed an FPSO contract for the Brazil SEAP-I project, where BPCL's IBV Brasil unit (65.4% stake) expects total investment near $2.8bn, subject to government approval. A concurrent Rs 8,438-crore related-party postal ballot with Petronet LNG is disclosed and shareholder-voted, not a governance red flag on its own.

BPCL

Sector Scorecard

Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 20% news catalyst + 15% technicals, for the 5 sectors with a researched catalyst. The other 7 show : no catalyst was researched for them, so their score renormalises over the remaining three inputs rather than assuming a neutral headline. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.

SectorStanceEntryCheap QualityTechNews IndexIdx P/EB/W/H/A
Information Technology 10 scanned · 4 researched ACCUMULATE 67.8 60.0 93.2 46.1 ▲ +0.57% 19.6 2/4/4/0
Banks 40 scanned · 11 researched AVOID 42.3 23.6 52.3 65.2 +0 ▼ -0.02% 13.6 7/1/26/6
Pharmaceuticals 20 scanned · 7 researched AVOID 41.8 7.0 75.2 67.7 +0 ▲ +0.85% 41.1 1/8/10/1
Automobiles 15 scanned · 5 researched AVOID 39.5 7.0 76.0 65.6 ▲ +0.40% 34.0 2/6/5/2
FMCG 15 scanned · 3 researched ACCUMULATE 82.7 90.6 94.7 41.4 ▲ +0.38% 33.1 1/7/7/0
Metals & Mining 15 scanned · 3 researched AVOID 44.4 13.7 77.1 72.0 ▼ -0.07% 16.3 3/4/6/2
Realty 10 scanned · 2 researched WATCH 52.4 39.6 60.4 73.2 ▲ +0.08% 39.0 1/2/3/4
Energy & Power 40 scanned · 2 researched WATCH 60.4 56.0 69.2 57.3 ▼ -0.07% 14.9 7/3/16/14
Financial Services 94 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 1 researched WATCH 49.2 61.2 23.1 59.2 +0 ▲ +0.34% 16.1 10/1/61/22
Healthcare & Hospitals 20 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 8 researched AVOID 44.9 14.6 77.9 63.6 +0 ▲ +1.09% 43.5 1/7/11/1
Hospitality & Tourism 15 scanned · 2 researched WATCH 55.3 50.1 71.3 62.6 -2 ▲ +0.99% 91.0 4/4/3/4
Diversified & Other 2000 scanned · 273 ranked elsewhere · 42 researched WATCH 55.1 50.0 62.2 56.8 274/234/884/608

Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.

Stocks to Watch

New calls first, then the highest long-term composites. Each shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.

new call this session
-46.2% off its 52-week high
Composite 74.8 P/E 13.61 ROCE 46.5% Piotroski 5/9
new call this session
P/E in the 48th percentile of its own 3-year range · ROCE 22.4% (up 5.4pt over 5y)
Composite 69.2 P/E 30.34 ROCE 22.4% Piotroski 6/9
new call this session
P/E in the 53th percentile of its own 3-year range · ROCE 26.3% (up 5.3pt over 5y) · Piotroski 8/9
Composite 68.0 P/E 27.49 ROCE 26.3% Piotroski 8/9
new call this session
ROCE 16.0% (up 7.0pt over 5y) · Piotroski 7/8
Composite 64.9 P/E 33.5 ROCE 16.0% Piotroski 7/8
new call this session
P/E in the 76th percentile of its own 3-year range · ROCE 18.0% (up 19.0pt over 5y) · Piotroski 8/9
Composite 63.3 P/E 10.87 ROCE 18.0% Piotroski 8/9
new call this session
P/E in the 3th percentile of its own 3-year range · ROCE 14.5% (down 3.5pt over 5y) · -47.8% off its 52-week high
Composite 62.5 P/E 14.23 ROCE 14.5% Piotroski 2/8

How We Evaluate

MetricWhy it is in the frameworkSource
Return on capital, level and trendDurable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year Novy-Marx 2013 JFE
Gross profitability (GP/assets)As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap Novy-Marx 2013 JFE
Piotroski F-scoreA nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps Piotroski 2000 JAR
Cash-flow-to-net-profitAccrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists Sloan 1996 TAR
P/E versus the stock's own historyCheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole Basu 1977 JF
Book-to-marketThe value premium, in its original form Fama–French 1992 JF
EV/EBITDACapital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one Practitioner standard
Altman Z and interest coverageDistressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF
52-week-high proximity, 200-DMANearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE
Promoter pledgePledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied

Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.