The rally pushed Indian diesel prices up roughly Rs 3.9/litre and naphtha-linked resin costs up 15-20%+, reportedly compressing packaging EBITDA margins from ~17-18% to ~11-13% and threatening further road-logistics margin compression if diesel keeps rising. The spike partially reversed intraday on Sept 12 (to ~$97/bbl) after Iran signaled willingness to discuss the strait with Gulf states, so the shock may prove partly transient — but it lands alongside July CPI already at 4.45% on energy/food prices, ahead of the US Fed's Sept 15-16 meeting where markets are now pricing a hike rather than a cut.
A change to anything but AVOID publishes only after two consecutive sessions say the same thing; AVOID publishes at once.
| Ticker | Close | Published | Pending | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEGISLOG | ₹1,353.60 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ALKYLAMINE | ₹1,867.50 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ANTELOPUS | ₹1,139.35 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| BAJAJ-AUTO | ₹11,678.00 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| BLUEJET | ₹568.55 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| CARERATING | ₹1,650.50 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| IGIL | ₹314.30 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| KDDL | ₹3,881.90 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| KIRLPNU | ₹719.90 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| MIDWESTLTD | ₹1,016.40 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PGIL | ₹1,187.70 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PINELABS | ₹202.17 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PIRAMALFIN | ₹2,255.60 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| RACLGEAR | ₹1,756.70 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| THERMAX | ₹3,682.00 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
NSE's event calendar could not be read, so no results schedule is shown for this session.
| Index | Close | Points | Change | P/E | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,398.10 | ▼ -79.70 | ▼ -0.34% | 19.78 | 2.83 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 72,083.70 | ▼ -447.20 | ▼ -0.62% | 19.06 | 3.21 |
| Nifty 500 | 22,866.50 | ▼ -85.85 | ▼ -0.37% | 22.16 | 3.18 |
| Nifty Bank | 56,606.55 | ▲ +134.60 | ▲ +0.24% | 13.39 | 1.70 |
| NIFTY Midcap 100 | 62,197.20 | ▼ -160.15 | ▼ -0.26% | 29.98 | 4.28 |
Source: NSE ind_close_all_20260911
(levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).
Index P/E from NSE's official daily index file.
The desk's track record — the FIRST call made on each standing name, against its call today. Entry price is the close on the day of that first call, read from the cached bhavcopy for that date. "Unchanged" means the original call still stands.
| Company | First flagged | Verdict then | Verdict now | At flag | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri LtdTBZ | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹251.05 | ₹526.30 | ▲ +109.6% |
| Waterways Leisure Tourism LimitedCORDELIA | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹830.00 | ₹112.85 | ▼ -86.4% |
| Shanthi Gears LtdSHANTIGEAR | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹388.95 | ₹714.95 | ▲ +83.8% |
| TCC Concept LtdTCC | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹253.05 | ₹55.32 | ▼ -78.1% |
| India Glycols LtdINDIAGLYCO | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | AVOID | ₹1,139.20 | ₹279.00 | ▼ -75.5% |
| Genesys International Corporation LtdGENESYS | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | HOLD | ₹182.30 | ₹307.81 | ▲ +68.8% |
| HEG LtdHEG | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹739.25 | ₹266.00 | ▼ -64.0% |
| Milky Mist Dairy Food LtdMILKYMIST | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | QUALITY-WAIT | unchanged | ₹181.50 | ₹292.77 | ▲ +61.3% |
| PVP Ventures LtdPVP | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹40.20 | ₹64.82 | ▲ +61.2% |
| Goodluck India LtdGOODLUCK | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹1,330.00 | ₹516.85 | ▼ -61.1% |
| Raymond LtdRAYMOND | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹625.00 | ₹1,002.80 | ▲ +60.4% |
| Oriental Aromatics LtdOAL | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹341.95 | ₹532.10 | ▲ +55.6% |
1426 more standing calls with history are not shown — this table is the 12 that have moved most since we flagged them.
Source: data/state.json (call memory) × data/prices/<date>.json.
Naphtha-linked PET/PE/PP resin costs are up 15-20%+ following the crude surge, with packaging EBITDA margins reported compressing from ~17-18% to ~11-13% as competitive pressure limits pass-through. Indian packaging exporters specifically cite 15-20% cost inflation hurting export competitiveness.
Consolidated revenue rose 24.5% YoY and PAT 51.4% YoY to a record quarter, with management confident on sustaining double-digit EBITDA margins and Bangladesh/India capacity expansions on schedule. A bonus issue (record date Sept 11) and an Investor Day (Sept 24) follow. This is strong evidence against the pending QUALITY-WAIT->HOLD downgrade the desk was weighing.
A ~Rs 1,600 crore private-sector supercritical boiler order and management's 'reasonably robust' pipeline commentary are undercut by Q1 FY27 profit plunging 86% on a project overrun -- a real execution-risk signal that argues against the pending AVOID->HOLD upgrade rather than for it.
Moody's upgraded Piramal Finance to Ba2 (stable) on Sept 11 and Q1 profit rose 66% YoY, but a Rs 1,750 crore convertible-warrant issue to promoter entity Nithyam Realty -- priced only marginally above the SEBI floor -- goes to an EGM vote Sept 19, a governance point worth tracking even though it reads as contained for now.
IOLCP unveiled a Rs 495 crore investment across ibuprofen expansion, CDMO formulations and a new specialty chemicals facility targeted for Q3 FY27, alongside a clean promoter-encumbrance confirmation. The announcement is a genuine forward-growth signal, but the stock fell 8.10% the same session with no negative catalyst found in this pass -- a disconnect worth tracking rather than dismissing.
Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 20% news catalyst + 15% technicals, for the 4 sectors with a researched catalyst. The other 17 show —: no catalyst was researched for them, so their score renormalises over the remaining three inputs rather than assuming a neutral headline. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.
| Sector | Stance | Entry | Cheap | Quality | Tech | News | Index | Idx P/E | B/W/H/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology 75 scanned · 16 researched | ACCUMULATE | 62.6 | 65.4 | 78.5 | 28.4 | — | ▲ +0.11% | 18.4 | 0/9/59/7 |
| Banks 40 scanned · 13 researched | AVOID | 42.7 | 28.7 | 52.3 | 63.9 | — | ▲ +0.24% | 13.4 | 0/0/31/9 |
| Pharmaceuticals 85 scanned · 12 researched | AVOID | 44.8 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 65.4 | — | ▼ -0.09% | 41.1 | 0/18/56/11 |
| Automobiles 109 scanned · 21 researched | WATCH | 49.0 | 24.9 | 78.6 | 63.8 | — | ▼ -0.86% | 31.7 | 0/21/77/11 |
| FMCG 106 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 57.1 | 51.0 | 68.3 | 54.7 | — | ▼ -0.29% | 31.3 | 0/21/67/18 |
| Metals & Mining 83 scanned · 8 researched | WATCH | 49.6 | 33.0 | 67.9 | 63.4 | — | ▼ -2.30% | 15.8 | 0/11/55/17 |
| Realty 38 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 56.7 | 59.8 | 52.0 | 56.6 | — | ▼ -2.70% | 36.0 | 0/1/17/20 |
| Energy & Power 83 scanned · 12 researched | WATCH | 56.8 | 50.0 | 63.4 | 64.0 | — | ▼ -0.75% | 14.7 | 0/5/45/33 |
| Financial Services 150 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 6 researched | WATCH | 51.9 | 52.9 | 43.6 | 63.1 | — | ▲ +0.10% | 15.7 | 0/4/96/50 |
| Healthcare & Hospitals 58 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 3 researched | WATCH | 47.4 | 22.4 | 73.8 | 66.5 | +0 | ▼ -0.16% | 43.2 | 0/15/38/5 |
| Hospitality & Tourism 38 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 60.9 | 61.4 | 67.4 | 48.5 | — | ▲ +0.09% | 87.2 | 0/4/24/10 |
| Chemicals 99 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 59.4 | 54.0 | 68.7 | 58.2 | — | — | — | 0/12/64/23 |
| Construction & Materials 127 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 61.1 | 67.9 | 60.8 | 43.6 | — | — | — | 0/11/73/43 |
| Capital Goods 103 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 50.8 | 28.0 | 78.5 | 65.2 | — | — | — | 0/14/76/13 |
| Textiles & Apparel 47 scanned · 3 researched | WATCH | 56.0 | 50.0 | 62.6 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 0/5/30/12 |
| Retail & Consumer 67 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 56.7 | 50.0 | 68.4 | 63.8 | +0 | — | — | 0/9/40/18 |
| Packaging & Plastics 34 scanned | WATCH | 48.3 | 38.5 | 64.7 | 71.8 | -4 | — | — | 0/4/22/8 |
| Logistics & Transport 25 scanned · 1 researched | AVOID | 43.8 | 22.6 | 67.6 | 65.6 | -2 | — | — | 0/3/15/7 |
| Telecom & Media 29 scanned · 2 researched | WATCH | 53.3 | 50.0 | 60.2 | 50.4 | — | — | — | 0/1/17/11 |
| Commercial Services 31 scanned · 3 researched | WATCH | 54.7 | 53.4 | 52.8 | 61.6 | — | — | — | 0/2/17/12 |
| Diversified & Other 32 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 51.2 | 41.5 | 59.7 | 63.1 | — | — | — | 0/3/17/12 |
Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.
Split evenly across large/mid/small/micro cap so this list isn't one tier's picks — new calls first, then the highest long-term composites within each. Micro-cap names are boxed and flagged Highly Volatile — worth watching, not a call to buy — since their price swings run about twice every other tier's. Each card shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.
| Metric | Why it is in the framework | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Return on capital, level and trend | Durable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Gross profitability (GP/assets) | As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Piotroski F-score | A nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps | Piotroski 2000 JAR |
| Cash-flow-to-net-profit | Accrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists | Sloan 1996 TAR |
| P/E versus the stock's own history | Cheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole | Basu 1977 JF |
| Book-to-market | The value premium, in its original form | Fama–French 1992 JF |
| EV/EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one | Practitioner standard |
| Altman Z and interest coverage | Distressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them | Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF |
| 52-week-high proximity, 200-DMA | Nearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone | George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE |
| Promoter pledge | Pledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale | Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied |
Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.