Sensex gained 0.63% to 72,362.74 and Nifty rose 0.56% to 22,547.70 as September US payrolls badly missed forecasts (+29,000 vs ~84-90k expected) and Brent crude eased to ~$101/bbl, reversing the longest Nifty losing run in 25 years. The relief is a sentiment event, not a change in India's own trajectory: a Reuters poll of 61 economists has 35 expecting the RBI to hike 25bp to 5.50% on Oct 7 — its first hike since early 2023 — as August CPI rose to 4.82%, so the more consequential variable for a long-term holder is still two days away.
| Index | Close | Points | Change | P/E | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,555.75 | ▲ +133.80 | ▲ +0.60% | 19.30 | 2.77 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 69,213.75 | ▲ +232.40 | ▲ +0.34% | 18.14 | 3.33 |
| Nifty 500 | 21,971.60 | ▲ +113.85 | ▲ +0.52% | 21.67 | 3.08 |
| Nifty Bank | 54,714.10 | ▲ +263.35 | ▲ +0.48% | 12.97 | 1.65 |
| NIFTY Midcap 100 | 59,123.65 | ▲ +391.65 | ▲ +0.67% | 27.88 | 3.76 |
Source: NSE ind_close_all_20261005
(levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).
Index P/E from NSE's official daily index file.
This session's index move, next to the desk's standing stance. The stance is a valuation-and-quality reading over years — it does not move because an index had a good day. Sectors with no listed NSE index show — for the session columns; the stance still applies.
| Sector | Index | Session | Idx P/E | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FMCG Nifty FMCG · 7 researched | 44,579.65 | ▲ +1.80% | 30.9 | WATCH |
| Energy & Power Nifty Energy · 18 researched | 36,594.65 | ▲ +0.57% | 14.5 | WATCH |
| Realty Nifty Realty · 4 researched | 839.70 | ▲ +0.56% | 35.6 | WATCH |
| Banks Nifty Bank · 9 researched | 54,714.10 | ▲ +0.48% | 13.0 | WATCH |
| Financial Services Nifty Financial Services · 12 researched | 24,656.40 | ▲ +0.41% | 15.1 | WATCH |
| Metals & Mining Nifty Metal · 19 researched | 12,498.00 | ▲ +0.30% | 16.4 | WATCH |
| Hospitality & Tourism Nifty India Tourism · 9 researched | 7,599.85 | ▲ +0.25% | 86.5 | ACCUMULATE |
| Automobiles Nifty Auto · 36 researched | 25,421.90 | ▲ +0.15% | 29.6 | WATCH |
| Information Technology Nifty IT · 18 researched | 28,301.65 | ▼ -0.01% | 17.8 | ACCUMULATE |
| Pharmaceuticals Nifty Pharma · 23 researched | 26,117.10 | ▼ -0.74% | 40.4 | WATCH |
| Healthcare & Hospitals Nifty Healthcare Index · 9 researched | 15,934.65 | ▼ -1.00% | 41.5 | WATCH |
| Retail & Consumer no listed index · 4 researched | — | — | — | ACCUMULATE |
| Capital Goods no listed index · 18 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Chemicals no listed index · 8 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Commercial Services no listed index · 8 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Construction & Materials no listed index · 11 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Logistics & Transport no listed index · 6 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Packaging & Plastics no listed index · 2 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Telecom & Media no listed index · 5 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Textiles & Apparel no listed index · 5 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
Largest moves among the 1415 tracked names this session, against the 2026-10-01 close.
| Company | Call | Prev | Close | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krishna Defence & Allied Industries Ltd KRISHNADEF | HOLD | ₹1,000.90 | ₹1,201.00 | ▲ +19.99% |
| Delta Corp Ltd DELTACORP | HOLD | ₹73.48 | ₹85.43 | ▲ +16.26% |
| SMC Global Securities Ltd SMCGLOBAL | AVOID | ₹99.06 | ₹114.50 | ▲ +15.59% |
| DCM Shriram Ltd DCMSHRIRAM | HOLD | ₹906.85 | ₹1,044.55 | ▲ +15.18% |
| 5paisa Capital Ltd 5PAISA | AVOID | ₹316.35 | ₹360.90 | ▲ +14.08% |
| V2 Retail Ltd V2RETAIL | HOLD | ₹201.39 | ₹169.28 | ▼ -15.94% |
| Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd TEXRAIL | HOLD | ₹126.86 | ₹117.18 | ▼ -7.63% |
| Sportking India Ltd SPORTKING | HOLD | ₹208.54 | ₹193.53 | ▼ -7.20% |
| KPI Green Energy Ltd KPIGREEN | AVOID | ₹345.60 | ₹321.85 | ▼ -6.87% |
| Avenue Supermarts Ltd DMART | HOLD | ₹3,813.00 | ₹3,567.00 | ▼ -6.45% |
A change to anything but AVOID publishes only after two consecutive sessions say the same thing; AVOID publishes at once.
and 13 more — full list on the site.
| Ticker | Close | Published | Pending | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABSLAMC | ₹1,028.55 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| ARVIND | ₹530.40 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| ASIANENE | ₹458.65 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| CAMPUS | ₹204.12 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| CENTURYPLY | ₹680.05 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| DLF | ₹673.00 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ENDURANCE | ₹2,526.50 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| GALLANTT | ₹522.90 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| GLENMARK | ₹2,295.00 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| ICICIAMC | ₹3,061.20 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| IRCTC | ₹452.80 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| MUFIN | ₹132.89 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PARACABLES | ₹56.08 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| RACLGEAR | ₹1,550.40 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| SAMBHV | ₹164.66 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| SJS | ₹2,039.60 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SUNPHARMA | ₹1,779.70 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| WABAG | ₹1,999.50 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
The MPC is in session Oct 5-7 after holding the repo rate at 5.25% for four straight meetings; 35 of 61 economists polled by Reuters expect a 25bp hike to 5.50%, driven by August CPI rising to 4.82% and higher energy prices. September's CPI print, due Oct 12, is the next data point that would confirm or ease that pressure.
The 'Recalibrating Economics of Insurance Distribution' paper (life insurers capped at 15% of premiums within two years, 12.5% within five; general insurers 25%/20%) stays open for comment through Oct 25 with no final rule notified. Brokers have voiced concern, but nothing found this session moves the open claim either toward confirmation or reversal.
CMD Atul Gupta said inflows should accelerate in Q3/Q4 FY27 as turnkey softness reverses, maintaining the ~Rs8,000cr full-year target. Reported order-book and YTD-inflow figures disagree across sources (Rs17,000cr vs Rs14,424cr order book; Rs3,565cr vs Rs2,750cr inflows), likely different reporting dates rather than a genuine conflict, but the two sets should not both be treated as current.
Management continues to guide FY27 exit order book to ~Rs2,500cr (from Rs1,239cr at Q1-end) and reaffirmed anti-drone orders should reach at least Rs2,000cr on allied-country inquiries and upcoming tenders. No evidence found of the pipeline being walked back — the bullish reaffirmation stands, but full-year execution is still pending.
Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 20% news catalyst + 15% technicals, for the 4 sectors with a researched catalyst. The other 16 show —: no catalyst was researched for them, so their score renormalises over the remaining three inputs rather than assuming a neutral headline. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.
| Sector | Stance | Entry | Cheap | Quality | Tech | News | Index | Idx P/E | B/W/H/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology 75 scanned · 18 researched | ACCUMULATE | 62.6 | 65.3 | 78.5 | 28.8 | — | ▼ -0.01% | 17.8 | 0/10/57/8 |
| Banks 40 scanned · 9 researched | WATCH | 50.6 | 48.0 | 52.3 | 54.9 | — | ▲ +0.48% | 13.0 | 1/0/30/9 |
| Pharmaceuticals 88 scanned · 23 researched | WATCH | 47.8 | 25.3 | 71.5 | 68.3 | — | ▼ -0.74% | 40.4 | 5/17/53/13 |
| Automobiles 109 scanned · 36 researched | WATCH | 55.4 | 39.7 | 78.3 | 59.2 | — | ▲ +0.15% | 29.6 | 14/20/65/10 |
| FMCG 104 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 58.9 | 58.0 | 68.4 | 45.6 | — | ▲ +1.80% | 30.9 | 4/19/61/20 |
| Metals & Mining 83 scanned · 19 researched | WATCH | 54.6 | 44.2 | 67.5 | 61.0 | — | ▲ +0.30% | 16.4 | 7/9/49/18 |
| Realty 38 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 53.0 | 61.0 | 52.0 | 33.1 | — | ▲ +0.56% | 35.6 | 1/1/15/21 |
| Energy & Power 84 scanned · 18 researched | WATCH | 56.3 | 50.0 | 63.5 | 61.1 | — | ▲ +0.57% | 14.5 | 5/8/38/33 |
| Financial Services 149 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 12 researched | WATCH | 56.3 | 69.3 | 44.5 | 49.8 | +0 | ▲ +0.41% | 15.1 | 0/3/95/51 |
| Healthcare & Hospitals 59 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 9 researched | WATCH | 52.4 | 34.4 | 73.0 | 66.0 | — | ▼ -1.00% | 41.5 | 2/13/38/6 |
| Hospitality & Tourism 38 scanned · 9 researched | ACCUMULATE | 63.3 | 66.0 | 67.3 | 49.4 | — | ▲ +0.25% | 86.5 | 3/6/19/10 |
| Chemicals 100 scanned · 8 researched | WATCH | 57.9 | 57.7 | 67.7 | 52.8 | +0 | — | — | 0/11/62/27 |
| Construction & Materials 127 scanned · 11 researched | WATCH | 59.5 | 70.9 | 61.8 | 38.2 | +0 | — | — | 4/11/71/41 |
| Capital Goods 103 scanned · 18 researched | WATCH | 53.1 | 35.4 | 79.0 | 61.0 | +0 | — | — | 10/15/60/18 |
| Textiles & Apparel 47 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 55.7 | 50.0 | 61.5 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 2/5/27/13 |
| Retail & Consumer 67 scanned · 4 researched | ACCUMULATE | 62.9 | 61.6 | 68.4 | 57.0 | — | — | — | 2/13/34/18 |
| Packaging & Plastics 33 scanned · 2 researched | WATCH | 55.4 | 42.6 | 65.3 | 73.0 | — | — | — | 2/3/20/8 |
| Logistics & Transport 26 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 46.8 | 31.5 | 69.3 | 50.2 | — | — | — | 5/3/11/7 |
| Telecom & Media 33 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 52.7 | 50.0 | 59.8 | 48.2 | — | — | — | 3/2/14/14 |
| Commercial Services 38 scanned · 8 researched | WATCH | 54.4 | 51.2 | 52.6 | 66.1 | — | — | — | 3/1/20/14 |
Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.
Split evenly across large/mid/small/micro cap so this list isn't one tier's picks — new calls first, then the highest long-term composites within each. Micro-cap names are boxed and flagged Highly Volatile — worth watching, not a call to buy — since their price swings run about twice every other tier's. Each card shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.
Every Sunday, each lens's weight is re-tilted from its prior on all evidence to date of whether its ratings predicted subsequent returns, measured separately within each cap tier (data/lens_ic.json). Thin evidence moves a weight a little, a consistent edge more -- see METHODOLOGY.md. Every past change stays on the record in data/lens_weight_changes.json.
| Tier | Lens | Weight | t-stat | Hit rate | Weeks measured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large | Quality | 1.5 → 1.4091 | -0.2436 | 56% | 7.2 |
| Large | Financial Health | 1.5 → 1.979 | 1.5119 | 69% | 7.2 |
| Large | Value | 1.2 → 1.1404 | -0.1992 | 50% | 7.2 |
| Large | Earnings Quality | 1.0 → 1.2998 | 1.385 | 72% | 7.2 |
| Large | Growth Outlook | 0.8 → 0.861 | 0.3075 | 53% | 3.4 |
| Large | Momentum | 0.5 → 0.6138 | 0.9823 | 72% | 7.2 |
| Mid | Quality | 1.5 → 1.3032 | -0.5374 | 58% | 7.2 |
| Mid | Financial Health | 1.5 → 1.8378 | 0.9703 | 61% | 7.2 |
| Mid | Value | 1.2 → 1.113 | -0.292 | 64% | 7.2 |
| Mid | Earnings Quality | 1.0 → 0.9049 | -0.3851 | 56% | 7.2 |
| Mid | Growth Outlook | 0.8 → 0.7399 | -0.3027 | 50% | 0.4 |
| Mid | Momentum | 0.5 → 0.6691 | 1.6455 | 72% | 7.2 |
| Small | Quality | 1.5 → 1.8524 | 1.0197 | 63% | 5.4 |
| Small | Financial Health | 1.5 → 1.7831 | 0.7942 | 56% | 5.4 |
| Small | Value | 1.2 → 1.1041 | -0.3224 | 56% | 5.4 |
| Small | Earnings Quality | 1.0 → 0.8708 | -0.5286 | 52% | 5.4 |
| Small | Growth Outlook | 0.8 → 1.0057 | 1.137 | 89% | 1.8 |
| Small | Momentum | 0.5 → 0.6938 | 2.0669 | 74% | 5.4 |
| Micro | Quality | 1.5 → 1.9052 | 1.2092 | 74% | 5.4 |
| Micro | Financial Health | 1.5 → 1.7684 | 0.7489 | 59% | 5.4 |
| Micro | Value | 1.2 → 1.0792 | -0.4084 | 56% | 5.4 |
| Micro | Earnings Quality | 1.0 → 1.0287 | 0.115 | 56% | 5.4 |
| Micro | Growth Outlook | 0.8 → 0.7073 | -0.4723 | 69% | 2.6 |
| Micro | Momentum | 0.5 → 0.7238 | 2.894 | 93% | 5.4 |
| Metric | Why it is in the framework | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Return on capital, level and trend | Durable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Gross profitability (GP/assets) | As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Piotroski F-score | A nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps | Piotroski 2000 JAR |
| Cash-flow-to-net-profit | Accrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists | Sloan 1996 TAR |
| P/E versus the stock's own history | Cheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole | Basu 1977 JF |
| Book-to-market | The value premium, in its original form | Fama–French 1992 JF |
| EV/EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one | Practitioner standard |
| Altman Z and interest coverage | Distressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them | Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF |
| 52-week-high proximity, 200-DMA | Nearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone | George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE |
| Promoter pledge | Pledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale | Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied |
Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.