The rally pushed Indian diesel prices up roughly Rs 3.9/litre and naphtha-linked resin costs up 15-20%+, reportedly compressing packaging EBITDA margins from ~17-18% to ~11-13% and threatening further road-logistics margin compression if diesel keeps rising. The spike partially reversed intraday on Sept 12 (to ~$97/bbl) after Iran signaled willingness to discuss the strait with Gulf states, so the shock may prove partly transient — but it lands alongside July CPI already at 4.45% on energy/food prices, ahead of the US Fed's Sept 15-16 meeting where markets are now pricing a hike rather than a cut.
| Index | Close | Points | Change | P/E | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,398.10 | ▼ -79.70 | ▼ -0.34% | 19.78 | 2.83 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 72,083.70 | ▼ -447.20 | ▼ -0.62% | 19.06 | 3.21 |
| Nifty 500 | 22,866.50 | ▼ -85.85 | ▼ -0.37% | 22.16 | 3.18 |
| Nifty Bank | 56,606.55 | ▲ +134.60 | ▲ +0.24% | 13.39 | 1.70 |
| NIFTY Midcap 100 | 62,197.20 | ▼ -160.15 | ▼ -0.26% | 29.98 | 4.28 |
Source: NSE ind_close_all_20260911
(levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).
Index P/E from NSE's official daily index file.
This session's index move, next to the desk's standing stance. The stance is a valuation-and-quality reading over years — it does not move because an index had a good day. Sectors with no listed NSE index show — for the session columns; the stance still applies.
| Sector | Index | Session | Idx P/E | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks Nifty Bank · 13 researched | 56,606.55 | ▲ +0.24% | 13.4 | AVOID |
| Information Technology Nifty IT · 16 researched | 28,921.50 | ▲ +0.11% | 18.4 | ACCUMULATE |
| Financial Services Nifty Financial Services · 6 researched | 25,545.40 | ▲ +0.10% | 15.7 | WATCH |
| Hospitality & Tourism Nifty India Tourism · 6 researched | 7,732.05 | ▲ +0.09% | 87.2 | WATCH |
| Pharmaceuticals Nifty Pharma · 12 researched | 26,532.40 | ▼ -0.09% | 41.1 | AVOID |
| Healthcare & Hospitals Nifty Healthcare Index · 3 researched | 16,492.10 | ▼ -0.16% | 43.2 | WATCH |
| FMCG Nifty FMCG · 4 researched | 45,053.75 | ▼ -0.29% | 31.3 | WATCH |
| Energy & Power Nifty Energy · 12 researched | 37,935.20 | ▼ -0.75% | 14.7 | WATCH |
| Automobiles Nifty Auto · 21 researched | 27,304.50 | ▼ -0.86% | 31.7 | WATCH |
| Metals & Mining Nifty Metal · 8 researched | 12,999.05 | ▼ -2.30% | 15.8 | WATCH |
| Realty Nifty Realty · 5 researched | 848.50 | ▼ -2.70% | 36.0 | WATCH |
| Capital Goods no listed index · 7 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Chemicals no listed index · 4 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Commercial Services no listed index · 3 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Construction & Materials no listed index · 7 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Diversified & Other no listed index · 1 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Packaging & Plastics no listed index | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Retail & Consumer no listed index · 1 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Telecom & Media no listed index · 2 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Textiles & Apparel no listed index · 3 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Logistics & Transport no listed index · 1 researched | — | — | — | AVOID |
Largest moves among the 1433 tracked names this session, against the 2026-09-10 close.
| Company | Call | Prev | Close | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWFIS Space Solutions Ltd AWFIS | AVOID | ₹249.60 | ₹293.20 | ▲ +17.47% |
| Raymond Ltd RAYMOND | HOLD | ₹853.85 | ₹1,002.80 | ▲ +17.44% |
| Pine Labs Ltd PINELABS | AVOID | ₹173.17 | ₹202.17 | ▲ +16.75% |
| Filatex India Ltd FILATEX | HOLD | ₹76.25 | ₹87.41 | ▲ +14.64% |
| SMS Pharmaceuticals Ltd SMSPHARMA | HOLD | ₹417.45 | ₹463.45 | ▲ +11.02% |
| Kothari Industrial Corporation Ltd KOTIC | AVOID | ₹151.21 | ₹133.82 | ▼ -11.50% |
| Cochin Shipyard Ltd COCHINSHIP | AVOID | ₹1,520.40 | ₹1,381.00 | ▼ -9.17% |
| IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd IOLCP | HOLD | ₹211.43 | ₹194.31 | ▼ -8.10% |
| Ratnaveer Precision Engineering Ltd RATNAVEER | HOLD | ₹310.60 | ₹288.30 | ▼ -7.18% |
| Kennametal India Ltd KENNAMET | HOLD | ₹5,027.90 | ₹4,682.40 | ▼ -6.87% |
Set aside as undetermined: PGIL (▼ -50.06%). A move this large over one session is usually a bonus, split or demerger rather than a price change, and a close-only series cannot tell the two apart — so it is neither listed as a mover nor quietly dropped.
A change to anything but AVOID publishes only after two consecutive sessions say the same thing; AVOID publishes at once.
| Ticker | Close | Published | Pending | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEGISLOG | ₹1,353.60 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ALKYLAMINE | ₹1,867.50 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ANTELOPUS | ₹1,139.35 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| BAJAJ-AUTO | ₹11,678.00 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| BLUEJET | ₹568.55 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| CARERATING | ₹1,650.50 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| IGIL | ₹314.30 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| KDDL | ₹3,881.90 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| KIRLPNU | ₹719.90 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| MIDWESTLTD | ₹1,016.40 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PGIL | ₹1,187.70 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PINELABS | ₹202.17 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PIRAMALFIN | ₹2,255.60 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| RACLGEAR | ₹1,756.70 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| THERMAX | ₹3,682.00 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
Naphtha-linked PET/PE/PP resin costs are up 15-20%+ following the crude surge, with packaging EBITDA margins reported compressing from ~17-18% to ~11-13% as competitive pressure limits pass-through. Indian packaging exporters specifically cite 15-20% cost inflation hurting export competitiveness.
Consolidated revenue rose 24.5% YoY and PAT 51.4% YoY to a record quarter, with management confident on sustaining double-digit EBITDA margins and Bangladesh/India capacity expansions on schedule. A bonus issue (record date Sept 11) and an Investor Day (Sept 24) follow. This is strong evidence against the pending QUALITY-WAIT->HOLD downgrade the desk was weighing.
A ~Rs 1,600 crore private-sector supercritical boiler order and management's 'reasonably robust' pipeline commentary are undercut by Q1 FY27 profit plunging 86% on a project overrun -- a real execution-risk signal that argues against the pending AVOID->HOLD upgrade rather than for it.
Moody's upgraded Piramal Finance to Ba2 (stable) on Sept 11 and Q1 profit rose 66% YoY, but a Rs 1,750 crore convertible-warrant issue to promoter entity Nithyam Realty -- priced only marginally above the SEBI floor -- goes to an EGM vote Sept 19, a governance point worth tracking even though it reads as contained for now.
IOLCP unveiled a Rs 495 crore investment across ibuprofen expansion, CDMO formulations and a new specialty chemicals facility targeted for Q3 FY27, alongside a clean promoter-encumbrance confirmation. The announcement is a genuine forward-growth signal, but the stock fell 8.10% the same session with no negative catalyst found in this pass -- a disconnect worth tracking rather than dismissing.
Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 20% news catalyst + 15% technicals, for the 4 sectors with a researched catalyst. The other 17 show —: no catalyst was researched for them, so their score renormalises over the remaining three inputs rather than assuming a neutral headline. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.
| Sector | Stance | Entry | Cheap | Quality | Tech | News | Index | Idx P/E | B/W/H/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology 75 scanned · 16 researched | ACCUMULATE | 62.6 | 65.4 | 78.5 | 28.4 | — | ▲ +0.11% | 18.4 | 0/9/59/7 |
| Banks 40 scanned · 13 researched | AVOID | 42.7 | 28.7 | 52.3 | 63.9 | — | ▲ +0.24% | 13.4 | 0/0/31/9 |
| Pharmaceuticals 85 scanned · 12 researched | AVOID | 44.8 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 65.4 | — | ▼ -0.09% | 41.1 | 0/18/56/11 |
| Automobiles 109 scanned · 21 researched | WATCH | 49.0 | 24.9 | 78.6 | 63.8 | — | ▼ -0.86% | 31.7 | 0/21/77/11 |
| FMCG 106 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 57.1 | 51.0 | 68.3 | 54.7 | — | ▼ -0.29% | 31.3 | 0/21/67/18 |
| Metals & Mining 83 scanned · 8 researched | WATCH | 49.6 | 33.0 | 67.9 | 63.4 | — | ▼ -2.30% | 15.8 | 0/11/55/17 |
| Realty 38 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 56.7 | 59.8 | 52.0 | 56.6 | — | ▼ -2.70% | 36.0 | 0/1/17/20 |
| Energy & Power 83 scanned · 12 researched | WATCH | 56.8 | 50.0 | 63.4 | 64.0 | — | ▼ -0.75% | 14.7 | 0/5/45/33 |
| Financial Services 150 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 6 researched | WATCH | 51.9 | 52.9 | 43.6 | 63.1 | — | ▲ +0.10% | 15.7 | 0/4/96/50 |
| Healthcare & Hospitals 58 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 3 researched | WATCH | 47.4 | 22.4 | 73.8 | 66.5 | +0 | ▼ -0.16% | 43.2 | 0/15/38/5 |
| Hospitality & Tourism 38 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 60.9 | 61.4 | 67.4 | 48.5 | — | ▲ +0.09% | 87.2 | 0/4/24/10 |
| Chemicals 99 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 59.4 | 54.0 | 68.7 | 58.2 | — | — | — | 0/12/64/23 |
| Construction & Materials 127 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 61.1 | 67.9 | 60.8 | 43.6 | — | — | — | 0/11/73/43 |
| Capital Goods 103 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 50.8 | 28.0 | 78.5 | 65.2 | — | — | — | 0/14/76/13 |
| Textiles & Apparel 47 scanned · 3 researched | WATCH | 56.0 | 50.0 | 62.6 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 0/5/30/12 |
| Retail & Consumer 67 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 56.7 | 50.0 | 68.4 | 63.8 | +0 | — | — | 0/9/40/18 |
| Packaging & Plastics 34 scanned | WATCH | 48.3 | 38.5 | 64.7 | 71.8 | -4 | — | — | 0/4/22/8 |
| Logistics & Transport 25 scanned · 1 researched | AVOID | 43.8 | 22.6 | 67.6 | 65.6 | -2 | — | — | 0/3/15/7 |
| Telecom & Media 29 scanned · 2 researched | WATCH | 53.3 | 50.0 | 60.2 | 50.4 | — | — | — | 0/1/17/11 |
| Commercial Services 31 scanned · 3 researched | WATCH | 54.7 | 53.4 | 52.8 | 61.6 | — | — | — | 0/2/17/12 |
| Diversified & Other 32 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 51.2 | 41.5 | 59.7 | 63.1 | — | — | — | 0/3/17/12 |
Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.
Split evenly across large/mid/small/micro cap so this list isn't one tier's picks — new calls first, then the highest long-term composites within each. Micro-cap names are boxed and flagged Highly Volatile — worth watching, not a call to buy — since their price swings run about twice every other tier's. Each card shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.
| Metric | Why it is in the framework | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Return on capital, level and trend | Durable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Gross profitability (GP/assets) | As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Piotroski F-score | A nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps | Piotroski 2000 JAR |
| Cash-flow-to-net-profit | Accrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists | Sloan 1996 TAR |
| P/E versus the stock's own history | Cheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole | Basu 1977 JF |
| Book-to-market | The value premium, in its original form | Fama–French 1992 JF |
| EV/EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one | Practitioner standard |
| Altman Z and interest coverage | Distressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them | Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF |
| 52-week-high proximity, 200-DMA | Nearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone | George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE |
| Promoter pledge | Pledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale | Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied |
Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.