US 10-year yields spiked to ~5.27% on Sept 29 — extending the Fed's Sept 16 hike to 3.75-4.00% — and dragged Wall Street and Asian cues lower; Nifty and Sensex both closed weaker with FIIs net sellers of almost Rs 10,000 crore. Brent above $97/bbl on West Asia risk and the rupee near 96/USD add two more channels of external tightening, raising the cost-of-capital bar for rate-sensitive sectors even as India's own Q1 FY27 GDP (+7.8%) and August CPI (4.82%) prints stay domestically constructive.
| Index | Close | Points | Change | P/E | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 22,620.45 | ▼ -95.75 | ▼ -0.42% | 19.36 | 2.78 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 69,746.95 | ▲ +286.75 | ▲ +0.41% | 18.28 | 3.35 |
| Nifty 500 | 22,072.10 | ▼ -28.90 | ▼ -0.13% | 21.77 | 3.09 |
| Nifty Bank | 54,633.05 | ▲ +373.10 | ▲ +0.69% | 12.95 | 1.65 |
| NIFTY Midcap 100 | 59,332.05 | ▲ +12.65 | ▲ +0.02% | 27.98 | 3.77 |
Source: NSE ind_close_all_20260930
(levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).
Index P/E from NSE's official daily index file.
This session's index move, next to the desk's standing stance. The stance is a valuation-and-quality reading over years — it does not move because an index had a good day. Sectors with no listed NSE index show — for the session columns; the stance still applies.
| Sector | Index | Session | Idx P/E | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realty Nifty Realty · 4 researched | 847.35 | ▲ +1.62% | 35.9 | WATCH |
| Hospitality & Tourism Nifty India Tourism · 9 researched | 7,704.45 | ▲ +1.25% | 87.7 | ACCUMULATE |
| Banks Nifty Bank · 9 researched | 54,633.05 | ▲ +0.69% | 12.9 | WATCH |
| Automobiles Nifty Auto · 36 researched | 26,293.95 | ▲ +0.46% | 30.6 | WATCH |
| Energy & Power Nifty Energy · 18 researched | 36,636.00 | ▲ +0.35% | 14.5 | WATCH |
| Information Technology Nifty IT · 17 researched | 27,704.80 | ▲ +0.13% | 17.4 | ACCUMULATE |
| Financial Services Nifty Financial Services · 11 researched | 24,649.50 | ■ +0.00% | 15.1 | WATCH |
| FMCG Nifty FMCG · 7 researched | 44,508.45 | ▼ -0.63% | 30.9 | WATCH |
| Metals & Mining Nifty Metal · 19 researched | 12,760.50 | ▼ -1.50% | 16.7 | WATCH |
| Pharmaceuticals Nifty Pharma · 21 researched | 26,438.00 | ▼ -1.84% | 40.9 | WATCH |
| Healthcare & Hospitals Nifty Healthcare Index · 8 researched | 16,137.75 | ▼ -2.57% | 42.0 | WATCH |
| Construction & Materials no listed index · 10 researched | — | — | — | ACCUMULATE |
| Capital Goods no listed index · 15 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Chemicals no listed index · 9 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Commercial Services no listed index · 6 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Diversified & Other no listed index · 1 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Logistics & Transport no listed index · 6 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Packaging & Plastics no listed index · 2 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Retail & Consumer no listed index · 4 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Telecom & Media no listed index · 5 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
| Textiles & Apparel no listed index · 5 researched | — | — | — | WATCH |
Largest moves among the 1420 tracked names this session, against the 2026-09-29 close.
| Company | Call | Prev | Close | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicon Castalloy Ltd ALICON | HOLD | ₹724.85 | ₹869.80 | ▲ +20.00% |
| Ester Industries Ltd ESTER | AVOID | ₹84.55 | ₹101.22 | ▲ +19.72% |
| Ircon International Ltd IRCON | AVOID | ₹102.47 | ₹117.09 | ▲ +14.27% |
| Hubtown Ltd HUBTOWN | AVOID | ₹166.41 | ₹182.28 | ▲ +9.54% |
| Sun TV Network Ltd SUNTV | HOLD | ₹553.25 | ₹605.00 | ▲ +9.35% |
| Pashupati Cotspin Ltd PASHUPATI | AVOID | ₹92.72 | ₹75.40 | ▼ -18.68% |
| Innova Captab Ltd INNOVACAP | HOLD | ₹1,271.20 | ₹1,159.80 | ▼ -8.76% |
| Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd YATHARTH | HOLD | ₹1,108.00 | ₹1,032.50 | ▼ -6.81% |
| Fortis Healthcare Ltd FORTIS | QUALITY-WAIT | ₹822.00 | ₹770.00 | ▼ -6.33% |
| R Systems International Ltd RSYSTEMS | HOLD | ₹298.69 | ₹279.90 | ▼ -6.29% |
A change to anything but AVOID publishes only after two consecutive sessions say the same thing; AVOID publishes at once.
| Ticker | Close | Published | Pending | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALICON | ₹869.80 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ANTELOPUS | ₹1,125.90 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| CENTRALBK | ₹30.46 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| CHALET | ₹845.20 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| EMCURE | ₹1,943.00 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| FIEMIND | ₹1,877.60 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| LUPIN | ₹2,030.20 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| MAHSEAMLES | ₹737.65 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| NATIONALUM | ₹340.95 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| NPST | ₹1,764.80 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| PFIZER | ₹3,875.30 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| PRIVISCL | ₹3,586.60 | BUY | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| RHETAN | ₹17.51 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| RPEL | ₹1,809.00 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| SANDUMA | ₹182.18 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SANOFICONR | ₹3,802.80 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SARDAEN | ₹497.30 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SHARDACROP | ₹723.50 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| STAR | ₹1,120.00 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| SUNPHARMA | ₹1,816.60 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| THELEELA | ₹573.80 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| TIIL | ₹2,900.90 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| USHAMART | ₹498.65 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| VAML | ₹412.90 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| VRLLOG | ₹287.15 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
IRDAI's Sept 23 paper proposing first-year commission caps (20% for IDEs, 25% for agents) stepping down over five years, plus tighter Expense-of-Management limits, remains open for comment until Oct 25, 2026. No final notification yet — the open claim on insurer/distributor economics is neither confirmed nor falsified this session.
Confirmed Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin fell to 12.31% from 17.56% a year earlier on West Asia-linked input inflation, with management guiding toward FY28 normalization. Q2 FY27 numbers, due around November, are the earliest point that guidance can actually be tested.
S. Gurunatha Reddy ceases to be MD effective Sept 30 to lead the entity being demerged — a stated, non-adverse reason — but it lands alongside Q1 FY27 profit down 25% YoY, revenue down 12%, and thin fresh order booking (₹431.91cr against a ₹2,849cr book). Material input for the pending BUY->QUALITY-WAIT call review.
Q1 FY27 Domino's India like-for-like sales growth slowed to 2.5% from 11.6% a year ago, against management's 5-7% target; Popeyes India LFL jumped to 45% from 9.2%, partly offsetting the core-brand slowdown. The company also disclosed unspecified senior-management structure changes on Sept 11 and Sept 15 with no detail found on role or reason.
The ~₹18,000cr defence order book (anchored by the Pinaka program) has been flat, with coverage compressing from 13x to 5.7x and free cash flow turning negative. A new ₹1,076cr export order partially offsets the stall, but the combination leans cautious against the pending QUALITY-WAIT->HOLD call review.
Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 20% news catalyst + 15% technicals, for the 2 sectors with a researched catalyst. The other 19 show —: no catalyst was researched for them, so their score renormalises over the remaining three inputs rather than assuming a neutral headline. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.
| Sector | Stance | Entry | Cheap | Quality | Tech | News | Index | Idx P/E | B/W/H/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology 75 scanned · 17 researched | ACCUMULATE | 62.2 | 64.6 | 78.5 | 28.4 | — | ▲ +0.13% | 17.4 | 4/9/54/8 |
| Banks 40 scanned · 9 researched | WATCH | 45.7 | 36.5 | 52.3 | 58.9 | — | ▲ +0.69% | 12.9 | 1/0/29/10 |
| Pharmaceuticals 85 scanned · 21 researched | WATCH | 45.3 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 68.4 | — | ▼ -1.84% | 40.9 | 0/20/54/11 |
| Automobiles 109 scanned · 36 researched | WATCH | 52.7 | 32.2 | 78.3 | 64.8 | — | ▲ +0.46% | 30.6 | 14/21/64/10 |
| FMCG 104 scanned · 7 researched | WATCH | 59.0 | 58.5 | 68.3 | 44.5 | — | ▼ -0.63% | 30.9 | 4/18/65/17 |
| Metals & Mining 82 scanned · 19 researched | WATCH | 52.6 | 39.1 | 68.2 | 62.4 | — | ▼ -1.50% | 16.7 | 0/11/53/18 |
| Realty 38 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 51.6 | 55.8 | 52.0 | 39.8 | — | ▲ +1.62% | 35.9 | 1/2/15/20 |
| Energy & Power 84 scanned · 18 researched | WATCH | 55.9 | 49.0 | 63.6 | 61.5 | — | ▲ +0.35% | 14.5 | 4/8/40/32 |
| Financial Services 147 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 11 researched | WATCH | 55.0 | 67.0 | 43.9 | 48.0 | +0 | ■ +0.00% | 15.1 | 0/4/90/53 |
| Healthcare & Hospitals 58 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 8 researched | WATCH | 53.0 | 34.3 | 73.8 | 68.3 | — | ▼ -2.57% | 42.0 | 5/16/32/5 |
| Hospitality & Tourism 37 scanned · 9 researched | ACCUMULATE | 64.9 | 69.4 | 68.6 | 46.6 | — | ▲ +1.25% | 87.7 | 0/5/22/10 |
| Chemicals 98 scanned · 9 researched | WATCH | 60.5 | 58.6 | 68.5 | 52.1 | — | — | — | 2/10/63/23 |
| Construction & Materials 123 scanned · 10 researched | ACCUMULATE | 64.4 | 75.0 | 61.8 | 40.4 | — | — | — | 3/10/70/40 |
| Capital Goods 100 scanned · 15 researched | WATCH | 53.5 | 35.6 | 77.6 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 10/11/66/13 |
| Textiles & Apparel 47 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 56.0 | 50.0 | 62.6 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 2/5/28/12 |
| Retail & Consumer 67 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 57.4 | 55.9 | 68.4 | 53.0 | +0 | — | — | 2/10/36/19 |
| Packaging & Plastics 35 scanned · 2 researched | WATCH | 54.0 | 41.0 | 64.1 | 71.6 | — | — | — | 2/4/20/9 |
| Logistics & Transport 25 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 46.2 | 30.6 | 67.6 | 52.0 | — | — | — | 5/3/10/7 |
| Telecom & Media 29 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 52.9 | 50.0 | 60.2 | 48.4 | — | — | — | 3/1/14/11 |
| Commercial Services 31 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 60.5 | 64.0 | 52.8 | 64.0 | — | — | — | 2/2/14/13 |
| Diversified & Other 31 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 51.2 | 41.0 | 60.8 | 62.6 | — | — | — | 0/3/17/11 |
Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.
Split evenly across large/mid/small/micro cap so this list isn't one tier's picks — new calls first, then the highest long-term composites within each. Micro-cap names are boxed and flagged Highly Volatile — worth watching, not a call to buy — since their price swings run about twice every other tier's. Each card shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.
| Metric | Why it is in the framework | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Return on capital, level and trend | Durable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Gross profitability (GP/assets) | As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Piotroski F-score | A nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps | Piotroski 2000 JAR |
| Cash-flow-to-net-profit | Accrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists | Sloan 1996 TAR |
| P/E versus the stock's own history | Cheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole | Basu 1977 JF |
| Book-to-market | The value premium, in its original form | Fama–French 1992 JF |
| EV/EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one | Practitioner standard |
| Altman Z and interest coverage | Distressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them | Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF |
| 52-week-high proximity, 200-DMA | Nearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone | George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE |
| Promoter pledge | Pledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale | Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied |
Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.