The FOMC's Sept 16 move — its first hike in three years, under new Chair Kevin Warsh — cites inflation that has picked up since the Middle East war; 16 of 18 officials see room for further hikes this year. For India, a hawkish Fed compounds a stronger dollar and weaker rupee onto a domestic backdrop where August CPI just accelerated to 4.82%, squeezing the RBI's own room to cut and adding pressure to foreign portfolio flows into Indian equities — a regime shift for long-term entry timing, not a one-day headline.
GIFT Nifty futures traded near 23,342, down about 0.1%, even as the Nasdaq (+1.69%) and S&P 500 (+1.14%) rallied overnight and most Asian markets were higher — a disconnect driven by continued FPI selling (net Rs 20,041 crore sold in September through the 17th, before a small ~Rs 600 crore net buy the following session) and a weak rupee (~95.94-96.15/USD) after the Fed's hike. Brent crude eased to ~$103.3-103.7/bbl, a modest offset for India's import bill.
A change to anything but AVOID publishes only after two consecutive sessions say the same thing; AVOID publishes at once.
| Ticker | Close | Published | Pending | Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBOTINDIA | ₹27,270.00 | BUY | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| ASHAPURMIN | ₹525.35 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| ASHIANA | ₹354.75 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| AVL | ₹636.95 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| BHARATFORG | ₹1,962.10 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| BHEL | ₹439.90 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| BUTTERFLY | ₹585.80 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| CANBK | ₹123.78 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| CARERATING | ₹1,668.60 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| DCBBANK | ₹218.35 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| GILLETTE | ₹7,073.00 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| IGIL | ₹330.95 | BUY | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| JAMNAAUTO | ₹125.03 | BUY | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| JTLIND | ₹87.67 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| JUBLFOOD | ₹500.00 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| KRN | ₹1,446.20 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| MANINDS | ₹851.55 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| NAVINFLUOR | ₹8,590.00 | HOLD | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| NRBBEARING | ₹525.50 | HOLD | → | BUY | if next session holds |
| PINELABS | ₹192.04 | AVOID | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
| SHRIPISTON | ₹4,576.60 | BUY | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| STYLAMIND | ₹3,295.50 | BUY | → | QUALITY-WAIT | if next session holds |
| TTKPRESTIG | ₹530.85 | QUALITY-WAIT | → | HOLD | if next session holds |
No tracked name reports today.
Source: NSE event calendar, filtered to the 1433 tracked names.
| Index | Close | Points | Change | P/E | P/B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,346.40 | ▲ +75.80 | ▲ +0.33% | 19.74 | 2.82 |
| Nifty Next 50 | 72,025.40 | ▲ +881.40 | ▲ +1.24% | 19.04 | 3.21 |
| Nifty 500 | 22,840.55 | ▲ +185.90 | ▲ +0.82% | 22.13 | 3.17 |
| Nifty Bank | 56,358.70 | ▲ +302.95 | ▲ +0.54% | 13.33 | 1.69 |
| NIFTY Midcap 100 | 62,191.25 | ▲ +759.15 | ▲ +1.24% | 29.97 | 4.26 |
Source: NSE ind_close_all_20260918
(levels, index P/E and P/B) and the full-market bhavcopy (breadth).
Index P/E from NSE's official daily index file.
The desk's track record — the FIRST call made on each standing name, against its call today. Entry price is the close on the day of that first call, read from the cached bhavcopy for that date. "Unchanged" means the original call still stands.
| Company | First flagged | Verdict then | Verdict now | At flag | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri LtdTBZ | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹251.05 | ₹603.55 | ▲ +140.4% |
| Waterways Leisure Tourism LimitedCORDELIA | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹830.00 | ₹115.15 | ▼ -86.1% |
| TCC Concept LtdTCC | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹253.05 | ₹49.85 | ▼ -80.3% |
| Shanthi Gears LtdSHANTIGEAR | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹388.95 | ₹700.05 | ▲ +80.0% |
| India Glycols LtdINDIAGLYCO | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | AVOID | ₹1,139.20 | ₹263.70 | ▼ -76.9% |
| STL Networks LtdSTLNETWORK | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹25.68 | ₹42.95 | ▲ +67.3% |
| HEG LtdHEG | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | BUY | ₹739.25 | ₹266.00 | ▼ -64.0% |
| Goodluck India LtdGOODLUCK | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | BUY | HOLD | ₹1,330.00 | ₹517.25 | ▼ -61.1% |
| Indo Rama Synthetics (India) LtdINDORAMA | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | HOLD | ₹56.81 | ₹91.05 | ▲ +60.3% |
| Raymond LtdRAYMOND | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | HOLD | unchanged | ₹625.00 | ₹978.00 | ▲ +56.5% |
| Genesys International Corporation LtdGENESYS | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | HOLD | ₹182.30 | ₹285.19 | ▲ +56.4% |
| Quadrant Future Tek LtdQUADFUTURE | Tue, 18 Aug 2026 | AVOID | unchanged | ₹341.00 | ₹528.20 | ▲ +54.9% |
1421 more standing calls with history are not shown — this table is the 12 that have moved most since we flagged them.
Source: data/state.json (call memory) × data/prices/<date>.json.
Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July — the highest since December 2024 — driven by Middle East war-linked energy costs and rupee weakness; food inflation ran at 5.95% and WPI hit 9.92%. RBI projects FY27 CPI averaging around 5%. Still inside the 2-6% tolerance band, but the trajectory works against further cuts just as the Fed has turned hawkish.
Promoter Harshbeena Sahney Zaveri released 23 lakh previously pledged NRB Bearings shares on Sept 16 after prepaying the underlying loan, reducing promoter encumbrance. The stock rose 12.4% to Rs 529.50 on Sept 18, matching the day's dispersion flag and supporting the pending HOLD->BUY call flip. Single-sourced on the pledge-release detail.
The July 29 board meeting that ceased Senior Management Official status for 12 officials also reappointed three independent directors — Vallabh Bhanshali, Mukesh Patel, Sonia Prashar — for a second five-year term through 2032, a continuity signal cutting against a governance-crisis reading. No further departures or adverse-cause reporting has surfaced since, though no cause for the SMO cessations has been disclosed either.
Epsilon Bidco (Blackstone-backed) sold its entire 26.38% EPL stake for roughly Rs 2,032 crore on Sept 1 at Rs 240.57/share, with Quant MF and other domestic mutual funds, insurers and FIIs absorbing the block — a constructive signal rather than a distress sale. This removes a large financial-sponsor overhang with no accompanying client-loss or guidance-cut news.
Promoter Pradeep Singh Jauhar sold 99.95 lakh shares (2.49% of voting capital) at Rs 128/share on Sept 11, cutting his personal holding from 6.46% to 3.96%, with no reason disclosed. The sale lands alongside the pending BUY->HOLD call flip and reads as a negative confidence signal, though it is a partial, disclosed sale rather than a full exit, and comes alongside a new Rs 47 crore Jharkhand leaf-spring plant and the closed Owen Springs acquisition, both supportive of forward growth.
Entry score is 40% cheap-vs-history + 25% quality trend + 15% technicals, renormalised over those three — the 20% news catalyst is not counted because no research was written for this session. It is not treated as neutral; it is absent. ≥62 accumulate · 45–61 watch · <45 avoid.
| Sector | Stance | Entry | Cheap | Quality | Tech | News | Index | Idx P/E | B/W/H/A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology 75 scanned · 17 researched | WATCH | 60.6 | 60.6 | 78.5 | 31.0 | — | ▼ -1.03% | 18.4 | 5/9/54/7 |
| Banks 40 scanned · 13 researched | AVOID | 44.6 | 32.5 | 52.3 | 63.9 | — | ▲ +0.54% | 13.3 | 2/0/29/9 |
| Pharmaceuticals 85 scanned · 18 researched | WATCH | 46.0 | 21.2 | 72.0 | 68.6 | — | ▲ +0.49% | 41.4 | 6/19/49/11 |
| Automobiles 109 scanned · 32 researched | WATCH | 50.7 | 27.5 | 78.6 | 66.2 | — | ▼ -0.11% | 31.5 | 15/20/63/11 |
| FMCG 104 scanned · 6 researched | WATCH | 58.2 | 53.8 | 68.9 | 52.1 | — | ▼ -0.23% | 31.5 | 3/21/62/18 |
| Metals & Mining 83 scanned · 12 researched | WATCH | 52.4 | 38.6 | 67.9 | 63.4 | — | ▲ +1.51% | 15.9 | 8/9/48/18 |
| Realty 38 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 53.1 | 55.4 | 52.0 | 48.6 | — | ▲ +1.19% | 35.9 | 1/1/16/20 |
| Energy & Power 83 scanned · 14 researched | WATCH | 53.0 | 43.5 | 63.4 | 61.0 | — | ▲ +1.05% | 14.7 | 5/6/40/32 |
| Financial Services 149 scanned · 5 ranked elsewhere · 9 researched | WATCH | 50.6 | 51.2 | 43.3 | 61.0 | — | ▲ +0.76% | 15.7 | 4/4/92/49 |
| Healthcare & Hospitals 58 scanned · 16 ranked elsewhere · 4 researched | WATCH | 46.3 | 21.9 | 73.8 | 65.6 | — | ▲ +0.51% | 43.5 | 5/15/33/5 |
| Hospitality & Tourism 38 scanned · 9 researched | WATCH | 59.3 | 56.9 | 67.4 | 52.0 | — | ▲ +2.53% | 88.8 | 4/4/20/10 |
| Chemicals 99 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 58.4 | 53.0 | 68.7 | 55.6 | — | — | — | 2/10/64/23 |
| Construction & Materials 125 scanned · 8 researched | ACCUMULATE | 62.3 | 72.6 | 60.8 | 37.6 | — | — | — | 5/9/69/42 |
| Capital Goods 103 scanned · 13 researched | WATCH | 51.8 | 31.0 | 78.5 | 62.8 | — | — | — | 11/13/64/15 |
| Textiles & Apparel 47 scanned · 3 researched | WATCH | 56.0 | 50.0 | 62.6 | 61.0 | — | — | — | 2/4/29/12 |
| Retail & Consumer 67 scanned · 2 researched | WATCH | 57.0 | 50.0 | 68.4 | 56.8 | — | — | — | 2/8/38/19 |
| Packaging & Plastics 34 scanned | WATCH | 53.3 | 38.9 | 64.7 | 72.9 | — | — | — | 1/3/22/8 |
| Logistics & Transport 25 scanned · 5 researched | WATCH | 46.5 | 27.4 | 67.6 | 62.4 | — | — | — | 5/3/10/7 |
| Telecom & Media 29 scanned · 3 researched | WATCH | 52.9 | 50.0 | 60.2 | 48.4 | — | — | — | 3/1/14/11 |
| Commercial Services 31 scanned · 4 researched | WATCH | 58.3 | 60.9 | 52.8 | 60.4 | — | — | — | 3/1/14/13 |
| Diversified & Other 32 scanned · 1 researched | WATCH | 49.2 | 37.5 | 59.7 | 62.7 | — | — | — | 0/3/18/11 |
Source: data/verdicts.json × NSE sector index closes.
Split evenly across large/mid/small/micro cap so this list isn't one tier's picks — new calls first, then the highest long-term composites within each. Micro-cap names are boxed and flagged Highly Volatile — worth watching, not a call to buy — since their price swings run about twice every other tier's. Each card shows the figures that selected it — open the desk for the full six-lens panel.
| Metric | Why it is in the framework | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Return on capital, level and trend | Durable high ROCE predicts future returns; the trend separates a moat from a good year | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Gross profitability (GP/assets) | As predictive as book-to-market, and less prone to the value trap | Novy-Marx 2013 JFE |
| Piotroski F-score | A nine-signal accounting checklist that separates real improvers from statistically cheap traps | Piotroski 2000 JAR |
| Cash-flow-to-net-profit | Accrual-heavy profit reverts; cash-backed profit persists | Sloan 1996 TAR |
| P/E versus the stock's own history | Cheap relative to itself, not to a peer set that may be expensive as a whole | Basu 1977 JF |
| Book-to-market | The value premium, in its original form | Fama–French 1992 JF |
| EV/EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral, so it compares a leveraged firm to an unleveraged one | Practitioner standard |
| Altman Z and interest coverage | Distressed firms have delivered lower, not higher, returns — screen them out rather than chase them | Altman 1968 JF; Campbell/Hilscher/Szilagyi 2008 JF |
| 52-week-high proximity, 200-DMA | Nearness to the high has predicted continuation — but momentum crashes, so never alone | George & Hwang 2004 JF; Daniel & Moskowitz 2016 JFE |
| Promoter pledge | Pledged promoter holding is a governance red flag ahead of a forced sale | Not currently available from either source — no penalty is applied |
Full derivation in METHODOLOGY.md.